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Chris Satullo's avatar

Jeff - Look at Real Clear Politics - Democrats hold a 3-5 percentage point advantage on polling for a generic congressional ballot. The in-party usually loses a substantial number of seats in midterms for a first term president, even one much more popular than Trump - whose approval is underwater by record margins. The Dems only need 3 seats to get a House majority. All the normal political signals in this abnormal time point to a big blue win in 2026. Sorry to bother your profane cynicism with actual polling and historical facts. I realize that part of the abnormal times is the possibility of military occupation of major blue cities on Election Day. I would hope, without being sure, that that would spur, not depress, turnout in those cities

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Chris Satullo's avatar

Thanks, Alan. My focus is not mostly on Kirk's audience. It's largely on the roughly 9 million people who voted for Obama, then voted for Trump, then voted for Biden. They decide elections. There's also still some unknowable number of traditional, decent, patriotic Republicans who supported Trump out of party brand loyalty, but are now appalled and dealing with the guilt of the whole thing. These voters are the ones who need to be motivated to turn out to swell a blue wave in 2026 (assuming we actually have a fair election.). They are not going to be persuaded by a message of "You are ignorant racists who helped destroy the country, but we'd like your vote. Here are the many things you must learn and the many vocabulary points you must correct before we will consider you in good standing as Americans." They are going to have mental humps to get over to vote D; the only way to help them get over the humps is to listen to them talk about the humps' shape, their height, their width.

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